Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Machida Zelvia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Machida Zelvia to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMachida Zelvia to win ✓64% · @1.83
Double chanceMachida Zelvia or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.73
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka preview and prediction
The match
The J1 League sees Machida Zelvia take on Avispa Fukuoka on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 08:00 (WAT) at Machida GION Stadium. Machida Zelvia are 3rd with 37 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Avispa Fukuoka sit 10th on 21 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Machida Zelvia's last 5: WWDWL Most recently they beat Tampines Rovers 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Avispa Fukuoka's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Sagan Tosu 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Machida Zelvia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Machida Zelvia and 1.0 for Avispa Fukuoka. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Safer route: Machida Zelvia or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Machida Zelvia to win at 1.83 – 64% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Machida Zelvia or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Machida Zelvia 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Machida Zelvia64%fair 1.55 · @1.83
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.30
Avispa Fukuoka16%fair 6.35 · @4.20
3.11Expected goals
2.15Machida Zelvia xG
0.96Avispa Fukuoka xG
53%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Machida Zelvia 2.1 – 1.0 Avispa Fukuoka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Machida Zelvia to win✓
64%
1.55
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Machida Zelvia or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Machida Zelvia ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Machida Zelvia / FT Machida Zelvia✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.73
–
Form
Machida Zelvia – last 6
WWDWLW
15 Oct
@ Tampines Rovers
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Kyoto Sanga
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Kyoto Sanga
0–0
D
23 Sep
vs Tochigi City
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–4
L
17 Sep
vs Svay Rieng
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
LWLDLL
14 Oct
@ Sagan Tosu
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs Fagiano Okayama
2–1
W
7 Oct
vs Yokohama FC
0–1
L
29 Sep
@ Osaka
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Shimizu S-pulse
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka.
What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our pick is Machida Zelvia or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
On our numbers Machida Zelvia have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Avispa Fukuoka 16%.
How many goals will there be in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our predicted score is Machida Zelvia 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Machida GION Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fagiano Okayama0
Vissel Kobe3