Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Avispa Fukuoka or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Avispa Fukuoka to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAvispa Fukuoka to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceAvispa Fukuoka or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.20
Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock preview and prediction
The match
Avispa Fukuoka host Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Best Denki Stadium. Avispa Fukuoka are 10th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Mito Hollyhock sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Avispa Fukuoka's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Urawa 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Mito Hollyhock's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Kashima 4–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Mito Hollyhock arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.9 for Mito Hollyhock. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Safer route: Avispa Fukuoka or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Avispa Fukuoka to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Avispa Fukuoka or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Avispa Fukuoka 2–0 Mito Hollyhock. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Avispa Fukuoka61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.30
Mito Hollyhock15%fair 6.82 · @3.90
2.91Expected goals
2.00Avispa Fukuoka xG
0.91Mito Hollyhock xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Avispa Fukuoka 2.0 – 0.9 Mito Hollyhock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Avispa Fukuoka to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Avispa Fukuoka or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.22
Half-time result
Avispa Fukuoka ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Avispa Fukuoka / FT Avispa Fukuoka✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.20
–
Form
Avispa Fukuoka – last 6
LLDLWL
2 Sep
vs Urawa
2–3
L
29 Aug
@ Kyoto Sanga
1–2
L
26 Aug
vs Verspah Oita
0–0
D
22 Aug
@ Kashima
2–3
L
15 Aug
vs Cerezo Osaka
3–0
W
8 Aug
vs Vissel Kobe
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mito Hollyhock – last 6
WDLWDL
2 Sep
vs Kashima
4–2
W
29 Aug
vs Machida Zelvia
1–1
D
26 Aug
vs Kyoto Sangyo University
0–2
L
22 Aug
@ Kyoto Sanga
3–1
W
15 Aug
vs Gamba Osaka
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Kashiwa Reysol
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avispa Fukuoka and Mito Hollyhock.
What is the prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our pick is Avispa Fukuoka or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
On our numbers Avispa Fukuoka have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mito Hollyhock 15%.
How many goals will there be in Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Our predicted score is Avispa Fukuoka 2–0 Mito Hollyhock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Best Denki Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
