Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi preview and prediction
The match
Matsumoto Yamaga host Renofa Yamaguchi in the J3 League on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 06:00 (WAT) at Sunpro Alwin. Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Renofa Yamaguchi sit 5th on 30 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Renofa Yamaguchi's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Ehime FC 1–2 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Renofa Yamaguchi arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.1 for Renofa Yamaguchi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Matsumoto Yamaga37%fair 2.72 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Renofa Yamaguchi38%fair 2.64 · @2.50
2.13Expected goals
1.05Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.08Renofa Yamaguchi xG
56%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.1 – 1.1 Renofa Yamaguchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Renofa Yamaguchi to win✓
38%
2.64
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.82
–
Form
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
WLLWLW
21 Oct
vs Thespakusatsu Gunma
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Parceiro Nagano
1–2
L
14 Oct
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Kagoshima United
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Renofa Yamaguchi – last 6
LWWWDW
21 Oct
@ Ehime FC
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Kochi United
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Tochigi SC
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ FC Gifu
2–0
W
26 Sep
vs Sagamihara
2–2
D
20 Sep
@ Kanazawa
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Renofa Yamaguchi.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Renofa Yamaguchi 38%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
