Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultKagoshima United to win ✗47% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.48
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United preview and prediction
The match
The J3 League sees Matsumoto Yamaga take on Kagoshima United on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 05:00 (WAT) at Sunpro Alwin. Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Kagoshima United sit 4th on 31 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Gainare Tottori 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Kagoshima United's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Cerezo Osaka 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Kagoshima United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.1 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.5 for Kagoshima United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Matsumoto Yamaga 30%, draw 22%, Kagoshima United 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Kagoshima United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Matsumoto Yamaga30%fair 3.31 · @2.90
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.00
Kagoshima United47%fair 2.11 · @2.20
2.67Expected goals
1.15Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.52Kagoshima United xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.1 – 1.5 Kagoshima United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kagoshima United to win✗
47%
2.11
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kagoshima United / FT Kagoshima United✗
27%
3.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.48
–
Form
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
LWWDLD
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Roasso Kumamoto
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Sagamihara
1–3
L
9 Sep
vs Shonan Bellmare
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kagoshima United – last 6
LWDWWW
7 Oct
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Fukushima United
3–2
W
26 Sep
@ Kitakyushu
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Tochigi SC
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Biwako Shiga
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Kagoshima United.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kagoshima United 47%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Kagoshima United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
