Value bet: Roasso Kumamoto to win @ 2.45 – our chance 47% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRoasso Kumamoto to win ✓47% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓12% · fair 8.68
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto preview and prediction
The match
The J3 League sees Thespakusatsu Gunma take on Roasso Kumamoto on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 09:00 (WAT) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma. Thespakusatsu Gunma are 19th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Roasso Kumamoto sit 8th on 24 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Thespakusatsu Gunma's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Kochi United 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Roasso Kumamoto's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Matsumoto Yamaga 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Roasso Kumamoto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.4 for Roasso Kumamoto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 46%.
Value angle: Roasso Kumamoto to win at 2.45 – 47% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 2.00. Predicted score: Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 Roasso Kumamoto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Thespakusatsu Gunma32%fair 3.08 · @2.45
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.30
Roasso Kumamoto47%fair 2.14 · @2.45
2.50Expected goals
1.10Thespakusatsu Gunma xG
1.40Roasso Kumamoto xG
46%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.1 – 1.4 Roasso Kumamoto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Roasso Kumamoto to win✓
47%
2.14
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Roasso Kumamoto / FT Roasso Kumamoto✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
12%
8.68
–
Form
Thespakusatsu Gunma – last 6
WLLLWL
19 Sep
vs Kochi United
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Renofa Yamaguchi
0–2
L
5 Sep
vs Fukushima United
1–3
L
2 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Parceiro Nagano
2–1
W
26 Aug
@ Tokyo Verdy
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Roasso Kumamoto – last 6
DWDWWL
18 Sep
vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Fukushima United
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Nara Club
2–2
D
2 Sep
vs Oita Trinita
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Kochi United
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Parceiro Nagano
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thespakusatsu Gunma and Roasso Kumamoto.
What is the prediction for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto?
On our numbers Thespakusatsu Gunma have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Roasso Kumamoto 47%.
How many goals will there be in Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto?
Our predicted score is Thespakusatsu Gunma 1–1 Roasso Kumamoto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto?
Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Roasso Kumamoto (J3 League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
