Value bet: Sagamihara to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMatsumoto Yamaga to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.09
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara preview and prediction
The match
The J3 League sees Matsumoto Yamaga take on Sagamihara on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 10:00 (WAT) at Sunpro Alwin. Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Sagamihara sit 3rd on 31 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with Shonan Bellmare 3–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Sagamihara's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Parceiro Nagano 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.2 for Sagamihara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Sagamihara to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Sagamihara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Matsumoto Yamaga38%fair 2.64 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.90
Sagamihara37%fair 2.73 · @2.90
2.40Expected goals
1.21Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.19Sagamihara xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.2 – 1.2 Sagamihara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Matsumoto Yamaga to win✗
38%
2.64
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Matsumoto Yamaga / FT Matsumoto Yamaga✗
21%
4.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.09
–
Form
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
DDDDLD
9 Sep
vs Shonan Bellmare
3–3
D
5 Sep
vs Osaka
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Kitakyushu
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Ehime FC
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Biwako Shiga
2–3
L
8 Aug
@ Kochi United
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sagamihara – last 6
DLLWWD
5 Sep
vs Parceiro Nagano
1–1
D
2 Sep
vs Jubilo Iwata
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ FC Ryukyu
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Kanazawa
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Thespakusatsu Gunma
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Roasso Kumamoto
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Sagamihara.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sagamihara 37%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Sagamihara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
