Value bet: Pogon Szczecin to win @ 2.75 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogon Szczecin to win ✗41% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.96
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.49
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin preview and prediction
The match
Pogon Szczecin travel to face Zaglebie Lubin in the Friendlies Clubs on Saturday 4 July (14:00 WAT).
Form guide
Zaglebie Lubin's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Podbrezová 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Pogon Szczecin's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat BFC Dynamo 3–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Pogon Szczecin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.6 for Pogon Szczecin. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Value angle: Pogon Szczecin to win at 2.75 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 54% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Pogon Szczecin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zaglebie Lubin36%fair 2.76 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.40
Pogon Szczecin41%fair 2.43 · @2.75
2.99Expected goals
1.44Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.55Pogon Szczecin xG
51%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Zaglebie Lubin 1.4 – 1.6 Pogon Szczecin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogon Szczecin to win✗
41%
2.43
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogon Szczecin / FT Pogon Szczecin✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.49
–
Form
Zaglebie Lubin – last 6
WLDLLL
1 Jul
vs Podbrezová
3–2
W
23 May
@ Jagiellonia
0–1
L
3 May
vs Cracovia Krakow
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Legia Warszawa
0–1
L
7 Apr
@ Arka Gdynia
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pogon Szczecin – last 6
WDWLWL
27 Jun
@ BFC Dynamo
3–0
W
23 May
vs GKS Katowice
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Piast Gliwice
2–0
W
6 Apr
vs Legia Warszawa
0–2
L
16 Mar
vs Korona Kielce
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Raków Częstochowa
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin.
What is the prediction for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
On our numbers Zaglebie Lubin have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pogon Szczecin 41%.
How many goals will there be in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our predicted score is Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Pogon Szczecin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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