Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗71% · @1.31
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Cancún vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
Toluca travel to face Cancún in the Friendlies Clubs on Saturday 4 July (02:00 WAT).
Form guide
Cancún's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Monterrey 1–4 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to CF Pachuca 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 1.2 for Cancún and 2.9 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cancún 13%, draw 16%, Toluca 71%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Over 3.5 goals at 2.20 – 51% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.41, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cancún 1–2 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cancún13%fair 7.92 · @9.00
Draw16%fair 6.15 · @5.10
Toluca71%fair 1.41 · @1.31
4.14Expected goals
1.23Cancún xG
2.91Toluca xG
60%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–38%
0–27%
0–37%
1–46%
1–16%
From our goals model: Cancún 1.2 – 2.9 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
71%
1.41
1.31
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.48 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
2.20 ▲
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
49%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.06
–
Form
Cancún – last 6
LDLWDW
21 Jun
vs Monterrey
1–4
L
4 May
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
1 May
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
27 Apr
vs Tapatío
1–0
W
24 Apr
@ Tapatío
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atlante FC
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
LWLLWL
11 May
@ CF Pachuca
0–2
L
7 May
vs Los Angeles FC
4–0
W
4 May
vs CF Pachuca
0–1
L
30 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
1–2
L
26 Apr
vs Leon
4–1
W
23 Apr
@ Mazatlán
3–4
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cancún and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Cancún vs Toluca?
On our numbers Cancún have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Toluca 71%.
How many goals will there be in Cancún vs Toluca?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cancún vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Cancún 1–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Cancún vs Toluca?
Cancún vs Toluca (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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