Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLa Luz to win ✓40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.99
La Luz vs Cerrito preview and prediction
The match
Cerrito travel to face La Luz in the Segunda División on Sunday 21 June (16:30 WAT). La Luz are 5th with 37 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Cerrito sit 9th on 34 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
La Luz's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Atenas 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerrito's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to CA River Plate 4–6 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerrito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Cerrito 0–0 La Luz.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for La Luz and 1.2 for Cerrito. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: La Luz 40%, draw 24%, Cerrito 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: La Luz 1–1 Cerrito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
La Luz40%fair 2.49 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Cerrito36%fair 2.81 · @2.95
2.43Expected goals
1.26La Luz xG
1.17Cerrito xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: La Luz 1.3 – 1.2 Cerrito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win La Luz vs Cerrito?
On our numbers La Luz have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerrito 36%.
How many goals will there be in La Luz vs Cerrito?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Luz vs Cerrito?
Our predicted score is La Luz 1–1 Cerrito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is La Luz vs Cerrito?
La Luz vs Cerrito (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
