Tercera División RFEF Promotion Play Offs · Spain
Arnedo vs Tropezón prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
Value bet: Tropezón to win @ 3.00 – our chance 45% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +36%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Arnedo 0.4 – 0.6 Tropezón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tropezón shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 31% for Arnedo.
Arnedo have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Tropezón have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 1.0 goals (0.4 for Arnedo, 0.6 for Tropezón). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (37%), 0–1 (22%), 1–0 (14%).
In their last 1 meeting, Arnedo have won 0, Tropezón have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Tropezón to win at 3.00 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tropezón to win ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.71 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 98% | 1.02 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 41% | 2.41 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 22% | 4.47 | – |
Form
Arnedo – last 6
| 13 Jun | @ Tropezón | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Jun | vs Oyonesa | 3–2 | W |
| 31 May | @ Oyonesa | 0–0 | D |
| 24 May | vs Calahorra | 1–0 | W |
| 17 May | @ Calahorra | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | @ Calahorra | 1–1 | D |
Tropezón – last 6
| 13 Jun | vs Arnedo | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Jun | @ Laredo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 May | vs Guarnizo | 3–0 | W |
| 17 May | @ Guarnizo | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | vs Escobedo | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Mar | @ Gimnástica Torrelavega | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 13 Jun 2026 | Tropezón v Arnedo | 1–0 |
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What is the prediction for Arnedo vs Tropezón?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Arnedo vs Tropezón?
On our numbers Arnedo have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tropezón 45%.
How many goals will there be in Arnedo vs Tropezón?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
When is Arnedo vs Tropezón?
Arnedo vs Tropezón (Tercera División RFEF Promotion Play Offs) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.