Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Lech Poznan to win @ 1.64 – our chance 66% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLech Poznan to win ✓66% · @1.64
Double chanceLech Poznan or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.25
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia preview and prediction
The match
Jagiellonia travel to Enea Poznań in the Ekstraklasa on Thursday 3 September (19:30 WAT) to face Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan are 1st with 32 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Jagiellonia sit 9th on 21 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Lech Poznan's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Widzew Łódź 3–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.5 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Jagiellonia's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Raków Częstochowa 5–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Lech Poznan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.3 for Lech Poznan and 0.9 for Jagiellonia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lech Poznan 66%, draw 22%, Jagiellonia 12%.
Safer route: Lech Poznan or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Lech Poznan to win at 1.64 – 66% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lech Poznan or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lech Poznan 2–0 Jagiellonia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lech Poznan66%fair 1.51 · @1.64
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @4.30
Jagiellonia12%fair 8.48 · @4.40
3.15Expected goals
2.25Lech Poznan xG
0.90Jagiellonia xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 2.3 – 0.9 Jagiellonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✓
66%
1.51
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Lech Poznan or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Half-time result
Lech Poznan ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.25
–
Form
Lech Poznan – last 6
WDWWWW
30 Aug
@ Widzew Łódź
3–2
W
27 Aug
@ FC Thun
2–2
D
20 Aug
vs FC Thun
7–0
W
14 Aug
@ KI Klaksvik
5–0
W
9 Aug
vs Piast Gliwice
3–0
W
6 Aug
vs KI Klaksvik
1–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Jagiellonia – last 6
WWWDLW
30 Aug
@ Raków Częstochowa
5–2
W
27 Aug
@ FC Iberia 1999
2–1
W
20 Aug
vs FC Iberia 1999
4–0
W
13 Aug
@ Rangers
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Widzew Łódź
0–2
L
6 Aug
vs Rangers
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
Our pick is Lech Poznan or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Jagiellonia 12%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 2–0 Jagiellonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Enea Poznań.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
