Value bet: Korona Kielce to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKorona Kielce to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.71
Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin preview and prediction
The match
Motor Lublin travel to Exbud Arena in the Ekstraklasa on Saturday 22 August (13:45 WAT) to face Korona Kielce. Korona Kielce are 11th with 18 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Motor Lublin sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Korona Kielce's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat Widzew Łódź 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Motor Lublin's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat GKS Katowice 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Motor Lublin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Korona Kielce and 1.0 for Motor Lublin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Korona Kielce 57%, draw 21%, Motor Lublin 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Korona Kielce to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Korona Kielce 1–1 Motor Lublin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Korona Kielce57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.70
Motor Lublin22%fair 4.65 · @3.65
2.73Expected goals
1.76Korona Kielce xG
0.97Motor Lublin xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Korona Kielce 1.8 – 1.0 Motor Lublin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Korona Kielce to win✗
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Korona Kielce / FT Korona Kielce✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.71
–
Form
Korona Kielce – last 6
WDLLDD
15 Aug
@ Widzew Łódź
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Legia Warszawa
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Jagiellonia
0–1
L
17 Jul
vs Nieciecza
0–2
L
14 Jul
vs Stal Rzeszów
0–0
D
9 Jul
vs Omonia Nicosia
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Motor Lublin – last 6
WLLDWW
16 Aug
vs GKS Katowice
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Pogon Szczecin
1–3
L
31 Jul
vs Jagiellonia
1–2
L
26 Jul
@ Widzew Łódź
2–2
D
17 Jul
vs Hapoel Katamon
2–0
W
11 Jul
vs Polonia Warszawa
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin.
What is the prediction for Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
On our numbers Korona Kielce have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Motor Lublin 22%.
How many goals will there be in Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
Our predicted score is Korona Kielce 1–1 Motor Lublin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin?
Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Exbud Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
