Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Lens to win @ 1.80 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLens to win ✓66% · @1.80
Double chanceLens or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.49
Estac Troyes vs Lens preview and prediction
The match
Estac Troyes host Lens in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade de l'Aube. Estac Troyes are 17th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Lens sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Estac Troyes's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Marseille 0–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Lens's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Sporting CP 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Lens arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.9 for Estac Troyes and 2.2 for Lens. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Lens to win at 1.80 – 66% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lens or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estac Troyes 0–2 Lens. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estac Troyes13%fair 7.48 · @3.90
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.75
Lens66%fair 1.51 · @1.80
3.17Expected goals
0.93Estac Troyes xG
2.24Lens xG
58%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
1–210%
0–19%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Estac Troyes 0.9 – 2.2 Lens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✓
66%
1.51
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Lens or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Lens ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.49
–
Form
Estac Troyes – last 6
LLLLWD
11 Oct
vs Marseille
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Angers
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Lille
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Strasbourg
2–6
L
29 Aug
@ Lorient
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Paris FC
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lens – last 6
LWLDWL
13 Oct
vs Sporting CP
0–2
L
9 Oct
vs Lyon
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Monaco
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Le Mans
2–2
D
10 Sep
@ Slavia Praha
3–2
W
5 Sep
vs Lorient
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estac Troyes and Lens.
Our pick is Lens or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
On our numbers Estac Troyes have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lens 66%.
How many goals will there be in Estac Troyes vs Lens?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Our predicted score is Estac Troyes 0–2 Lens, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Estac Troyes vs Lens (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de l'Aube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
