Ligue 1 · France · Stade Pierre-MauroyLille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction & analysis
Lille or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Lille to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lille 2.0 – 0.9 Stade Brestois 29 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lille are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for Stade Brestois 29.
Lille have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. Stade Brestois 29 have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.0 for Lille, 0.9 for Stade Brestois 29). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Lille or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Lille to win at 1.85 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lille to win ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Lille or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.18 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Half-time result | Lille ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lille / FT Lille ✗ | 40% | 2.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.60 | – |
Form
Lille – last 6
| 13 Oct | @ Arsenal | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Zulte Waregem | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Nice | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Estac Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Real Betis | 2–3 | L |
Stade Brestois 29 – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Angers | 5–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Monza | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | @ Auxerre | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Paris Saint Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our pick is Lille or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
On our numbers Lille have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Stade Brestois 29 16%.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.