Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw ✓88% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.14
Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain preview and prediction
The match
Marseille host Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Orange Vélodrome. Marseille are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Paris Saint Germain sit 1st on 23 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Beşiktaş 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Paris Saint Germain's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Stade Brestois 29 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.8 for Marseille and 2.2 for Paris Saint Germain. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marseille 12%, draw 17%, Paris Saint Germain 71%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paris Saint Germain to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Marseille 0–2 Paris Saint Germain. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille12%fair 8.04 · @7.00
Draw17%fair 6.03 · @4.80
Paris Saint Germain71%fair 1.41 · @1.36
3.00Expected goals
0.78Marseille xG
2.22Paris Saint Germain xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–111%
1–210%
0–39%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Marseille 0.8 – 2.2 Paris Saint Germain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paris Saint Germain to win✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Paris Saint Germain ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paris Saint Germain / FT Paris Saint Germain✗
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.14
–
Form
Marseille – last 6
LLLLWL
17 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
1–4
L
11 Sep
@ Rennes
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Paris FC
2–3
L
30 Aug
@ Monaco
0–2
L
21 Aug
vs Strasbourg
4–0
W
14 Aug
vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Paris Saint Germain – last 6
WWLDDL
13 Sep
@ Stade Brestois 29
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Slovan Bratislava
6–1
W
4 Sep
vs Monaco
1–2
L
28 Aug
@ Lille
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Rennes
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Lens
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Paris Saint Germain.
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our pick is Paris Saint Germain to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
On our numbers Marseille have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Paris Saint Germain 71%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our predicted score is Marseille 0–2 Paris Saint Germain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
