Ligue 1 · France · MMArenaLe Mans vs Lens prediction & analysis
Lens to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Le Mans 1.1 – 2.6 Lens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lens travel as clear favourites – 67% to win, against 11% for Le Mans.
Le Mans have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Lens have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.7 goals (1.1 for Le Mans, 2.6 for Lens). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–3 (8%).
Our pick is Lens to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.65 is better than our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lens to win ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.65 ▲ |
| Double chance | Lens or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time result | Lens ahead at half-time ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lens / FT Lens ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.81 | – |
Form
Le Mans – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Nice | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Rennes | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Le Havre | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs UNFP | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Angers | 3–2 | W |
Lens – last 6
| 10 Sep | @ Slavia Praha | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Strasbourg | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Auxerre | 5–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Paris Saint Germain | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Sunderland | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Le Mans and Lens.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Le Mans vs Lens?
Our pick is Lens to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Le Mans vs Lens?
On our numbers Le Mans have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lens 67%.
How many goals will there be in Le Mans vs Lens?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Le Mans vs Lens?
Le Mans vs Lens (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at MMArena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.