Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Rodez to win @ 1.80 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRodez to win ✗66% · @1.80
Double chanceRodez or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.03
Rodez vs PAU preview and prediction
The match
Rodez host PAU in the Ligue 2 on Friday 28 August, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Stade Paul-Lignon. Rodez are 13th with 13 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while PAU sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Rodez's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Nantes 5–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
PAU's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Nancy 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Rodez arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Rodez and 0.8 for PAU. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rodez 66%, draw 21%, PAU 14%.
Safer route: Rodez or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Rodez to win at 1.80 – 66% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Rodez or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Rodez 1–0 PAU. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rodez66%fair 1.52 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.70
PAU14%fair 7.34 · @4.10
2.77Expected goals
1.99Rodez xG
0.78PAU xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Rodez 2.0 – 0.8 PAU expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodez to win✗
66%
1.52
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Rodez or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Rodez ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodez / FT Rodez✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.03
–
Form
Rodez – last 6
WLWLDW
22 Aug
@ Nantes
5–2
W
14 Aug
@ Annecy
0–2
L
8 Aug
vs Laval
3–1
W
1 Aug
@ Montpellier
2–4
L
25 Jul
@ Toulouse
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Nimes
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
PAU – last 6
LWLLLL
21 Aug
vs Nancy
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Dijon
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Annecy
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Real Unión
1–2
L
25 Jul
@ Real Sociedad II
0–4
L
21 Jul
@ Espanyol
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodez and PAU.
Our pick is Rodez or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Rodez vs PAU?
On our numbers Rodez have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and PAU 14%.
How many goals will there be in Rodez vs PAU?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodez vs PAU?
Our predicted score is Rodez 1–0 PAU, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Rodez vs PAU?
Rodez vs PAU (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
