Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontpellier to win ✗61% · @1.68
Double chanceMontpellier or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.92
Montpellier vs Boulogne preview and prediction
The match
Boulogne travel to Stade de la Mosson in the Ligue 2 on Friday 28 August (19:00 WAT) to face Montpellier. Montpellier are 3rd with 24 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Boulogne sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Montpellier's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Dunkerque 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boulogne's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with RED Star FC 93 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Montpellier arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.4 for Montpellier and 0.5 for Boulogne. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Montpellier 1–0 Boulogne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montpellier61%fair 1.65 · @1.68
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.70
Boulogne18%fair 5.58 · @4.80
1.91Expected goals
1.37Montpellier xG
0.54Boulogne xG
47%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.4 – 0.5 Boulogne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✗
61%
1.65
1.68
Double chance
Montpellier or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.33 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.92
–
Form
Montpellier – last 6
WWDWWL
21 Aug
@ Dunkerque
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Nancy
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Dijon
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Rodez
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Clermont Foot
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Cannes
3–4
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Boulogne – last 6
DLDDLW
21 Aug
vs RED Star FC 93
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Guingamp
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Nancy
0–0
D
31 Jul
@ Valenciennes
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Rouen
0–1
L
24 Jul
@ Amiens
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montpellier and Boulogne.
What is the prediction for Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Montpellier vs Boulogne?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Boulogne 18%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs Boulogne?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–0 Boulogne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Montpellier vs Boulogne (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
