Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✓60% · @1.65
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.83
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar preview and prediction
The match
AZ Alkmaar travel to Johan Cruijff Arena in the Eredivisie on Saturday 31 October (21:00 WAT) to face Ajax. Ajax are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while AZ Alkmaar sit 5th on 23 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
AZ Alkmaar's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Twente 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.4 for Ajax and 1.3 for AZ Alkmaar. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 60%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 20%.
Safer route: Ajax or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ajax or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax60%fair 1.66 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @4.20
AZ Alkmaar20%fair 5.04 · @4.00
3.70Expected goals
2.37Ajax xG
1.33AZ Alkmaar xG
67%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.4 – 1.3 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Form
Ajax – last 6
WWWLDD
25 Oct
@ Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
22 Oct
vs Atalanta
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Groningen
5–2
W
15 Oct
@ HNK Hajduk Split
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
LWDWLW
25 Oct
vs Twente
0–2
L
22 Oct
@ Ararat-Armenia
4–0
W
18 Oct
@ Cambuur
2–2
D
15 Oct
vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
2–1
W
10 Oct
@ Feyenoord
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Telstar
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar.
Our pick is Ajax or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Ajax have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AZ Alkmaar 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
