Ajax travel to Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October (16:45 WAT) to face Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam are 12th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Ajax sit 3rd on 25 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sparta Rotterdam's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat Willem II 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Ajax's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Atalanta 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 1.4 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.9 for Ajax. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sparta Rotterdam13%fair 7.59 · @5.50
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @4.75
Ajax66%fair 1.51 · @1.44
4.28Expected goals
1.38Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.90Ajax xG
68%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–38%
0–26%
0–36%
1–46%
1–16%
From our goals model: Sparta Rotterdam 1.4 – 2.9 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
68%
1.47
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.45
–
Form
Sparta Rotterdam – last 6
WDLLDL
17 Oct
vs Willem II
3–2
W
10 Oct
@ GO Ahead Eagles
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Heerenveen
0–4
L
13 Sep
@ PSV Eindhoven
1–4
L
4 Sep
vs PEC Zwolle
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Excelsior
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Ajax – last 6
WWLDDW
22 Oct
vs Atalanta
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Groningen
5–2
W
15 Oct
@ HNK Hajduk Split
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax.
What is the prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
On our numbers Sparta Rotterdam have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ajax 66%.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
