Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.08
Groningen vs Ajax preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees Groningen take on Ajax on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT) at Euroborg. Groningen are 9th with 15 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Ajax sit 3rd on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Groningen's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Excelsior 5–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Ajax's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 away. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 May 2026, finished Ajax 2–0 Groningen.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 1.6 for Groningen and 2.6 for Ajax. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 78% and both teams to score at 68%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Groningen 23%, draw 17%, Ajax 60%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.36.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ajax to win – a 60% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.67, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Groningen 1–2 Ajax. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Groningen23%fair 4.36 · @3.30
Draw17%fair 5.76 · @4.00
Ajax60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
4.13Expected goals
1.57Groningen xG
2.56Ajax xG
68%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–37%
2–26%
1–16%
2–36%
0–25%
From our goals model: Groningen 1.6 – 2.6 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Ajax to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
On our numbers Groningen have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Ajax 60%.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs Ajax?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is Groningen 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Euroborg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
