The Eredivisie sees Excelsior take on Groningen on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Excelsior are 15th with 11 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Groningen sit 9th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Excelsior's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Ajax 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Groningen's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat PEC Zwolle 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.8 for Excelsior and 1.9 for Groningen. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 72% and both teams to score at 70%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Excelsior 1–1 Groningen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Excelsior38%fair 2.61 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.40
Groningen39%fair 2.57 · @2.50
3.71Expected goals
1.85Excelsior xG
1.86Groningen xG
70%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–18%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
1–35%
3–15%
From our goals model: Excelsior 1.8 – 1.9 Groningen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Groningen to win✓
39%
2.57
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.44
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Groningen / FT Groningen✓
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.75
–
Form
Excelsior – last 6
DLDWWL
19 Sep
@ Ajax
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Utrecht
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Willem II
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Groningen – last 6
WDDLLW
18 Sep
vs PEC Zwolle
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Twente
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Fortuna Sittard
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ PSV Eindhoven
1–5
L
16 Aug
@ ADO Den Haag
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior and Groningen.
What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Excelsior vs Groningen?
On our numbers Excelsior have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Groningen 39%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Groningen?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our predicted score is Excelsior 1–1 Groningen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Excelsior vs Groningen?
Excelsior vs Groningen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
