Value bet: Fortuna Sittard to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFortuna Sittard to win ✓45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗72% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.74
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard preview and prediction
The match
The Eredivisie sees Willem II take on Fortuna Sittard on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Koning Willem II Stadion. Willem II are 18th with 3 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Fortuna Sittard sit 7th on 20 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Willem II's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Ajax 1–5 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Fortuna Sittard's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Ajax 1–5 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Fortuna Sittard arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 2.0 for Willem II and 2.3 for Fortuna Sittard. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 80% and both teams to score at 72%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Willem II 34%, draw 20%, Fortuna Sittard 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (72%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Fortuna Sittard to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 72% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.39, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Willem II 1–2 Fortuna Sittard. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Willem II34%fair 2.91 · @2.50
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.50
Fortuna Sittard45%fair 2.21 · @2.45
4.25Expected goals
1.98Willem II xG
2.27Fortuna Sittard xG
72%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–27%
2–27%
1–16%
2–16%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Willem II 2.0 – 2.3 Fortuna Sittard expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortuna Sittard to win✓
45%
2.21
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
72%
1.39
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Fortuna Sittard ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortuna Sittard / FT Fortuna Sittard✗
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.74
–
Form
Willem II – last 6
LDLDLL
15 Sep
@ Ajax
1–5
L
11 Sep
@ AZ Alkmaar
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Excelsior
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fortuna Sittard – last 6
LWWLWD
12 Sep
vs Ajax
1–5
L
6 Sep
@ ADO Den Haag
3–2
W
28 Aug
@ Groningen
3–2
W
22 Aug
vs AZ Alkmaar
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Cambuur
3–1
W
8 Aug
@ PSV Eindhoven
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard.
What is the prediction for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
On our numbers Willem II have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fortuna Sittard 45%.
How many goals will there be in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our predicted score is Willem II 1–2 Fortuna Sittard, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
