Ajax host Excelsior in the Eredivisie on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Johan Cruijff Arena. Ajax are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Excelsior sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Willem II 5–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 4.0 goals a game.
Excelsior's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Utrecht 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.8 for Ajax and 1.1 for Excelsior. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 73%, draw 15%, Excelsior 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ajax to win – a 73% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Ajax 2–1 Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax73%fair 1.37 · @1.20
Draw15%fair 6.81 · @6.50
Excelsior12%fair 8.21 · @10.00
3.83Expected goals
2.77Ajax xG
1.06Excelsior xG
63%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.8 – 1.1 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
73%
1.37
1.20
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
50%
1.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.32
–
Form
Ajax – last 6
WWLWWW
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
20 Aug
@ FC Sion
4–2
W
4.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
LDWWLW
13 Sep
vs Utrecht
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Willem II
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Cambuur
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Excelsior.
Our pick is Ajax to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ajax vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Ajax have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Excelsior 12%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Excelsior?
Ajax vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
