Eredivisie · Netherlands · Abe Lenstra StadionHeerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction & analysis
AZ Alkmaar to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Heerenveen 1.1 – 2.2 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AZ Alkmaar travel as clear favourites – 65% to win, against 21% for Heerenveen.
Heerenveen have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 per game. AZ Alkmaar have 18 points from their last 6 (6W 0D 0L), averaging 3.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. AZ Alkmaar come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (1.1 for Heerenveen, 2.2 for AZ Alkmaar). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 0–2 (9%).
Our pick is AZ Alkmaar to win at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AZ Alkmaar to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Half-time result | AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar ✗ | 40% | 2.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.27 | – |
Form
Heerenveen – last 6
| 30 Aug | @ Willem II | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs PEC Zwolle | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Twente | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Volos NFC | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs OH Leuven | 4–4 | D |
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 5–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Fortuna Sittard | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Utrecht | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs ADO Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ PSV Eindhoven | 4–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Olympiakos Piraeus | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More Eredivisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our pick is AZ Alkmaar to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Heerenveen have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 14% and AZ Alkmaar 65%.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.