Willem II host Excelsior in the Eredivisie on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Koning Willem II Stadion. Willem II are 18th with 3 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Excelsior sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Willem II's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Heerenveen 2–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Excelsior's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game.
Excelsior arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.8 for Willem II and 2.2 for Excelsior. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Willem II 34%, draw 21%, Excelsior 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.44, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Willem II 1–2 Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Willem II34%fair 2.96 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.40
Excelsior46%fair 2.20 · @2.30
4.00Expected goals
1.85Willem II xG
2.15Excelsior xG
69%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Willem II 1.8 – 2.2 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excelsior to win✓
46%
2.20
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.44
1.55 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Excelsior ahead at half-time✓
37%
2.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excelsior / FT Excelsior✓
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.75
–
Form
Willem II – last 6
DLLWWD
30 Aug
vs Heerenveen
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–4
L
8 Aug
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs KV Mechelen
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs FC Eindhoven
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
WLWWWW
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Cambuur
4–0
W
1 Aug
@ De Graafschap
5–1
W
24 Jul
@ Heracles
5–3
W
18 Jul
@ NAC Breda
3–1
W
3.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Willem II and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Willem II vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Willem II have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Excelsior 46%.
How many goals will there be in Willem II vs Excelsior?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Willem II 1–2 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Willem II vs Excelsior?
Willem II vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
