Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✗70% · @1.44
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓90% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.36
Ajax vs Heerenveen preview and prediction
The match
Ajax host Heerenveen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 15:45 (WAT) at Johan Cruijff Arena. Ajax are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Heerenveen sit 6th on 21 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Shelbourne 2–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Heerenveen's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Twente 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Heerenveen 0–0 Ajax.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Ajax and 0.6 for Heerenveen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 70%, draw 20%, Heerenveen 10%.
Safer route: Ajax or draw (90%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Under 3.5 goals at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ajax to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Ajax 1–0 Heerenveen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax70%fair 1.43 · @1.44
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @4.90
Heerenveen10%fair 9.56 · @5.80
2.51Expected goals
1.93Ajax xG
0.58Heerenveen xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
3–010%
1–19%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ajax 1.9 – 0.6 Heerenveen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Ajax to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Ajax vs Heerenveen?
On our numbers Ajax have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Heerenveen 10%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Heerenveen?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Heerenveen?
Our predicted score is Ajax 1–0 Heerenveen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Heerenveen?
Ajax vs Heerenveen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
