Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.77 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.77Odds
U3.5
Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 60% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDe Graafschap to win ✗67% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.33
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.08
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.54
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ preview and prediction
The match
Jong AZ travel to De Vijverberg in the Eerste Divisie on Monday 17 August (19:00 WAT) to face De Graafschap. De Graafschap are 1st with 0 points from 0 games (top of the table), while Jong AZ sit 19th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
De Graafschap's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Helmond Sport 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Jong AZ's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to FC Eindhoven 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Jong AZ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 April 2026, finished De Graafschap 5–0 Jong AZ.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for De Graafschap and 0.8 for Jong AZ. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: De Graafschap 67%, draw 13%, Jong AZ 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.33.
Value angle: Under 3.5 goals at 2.00 – 60% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was De Graafschap to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.77, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: De Graafschap 1–0 Jong AZ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
De Graafschap67%fair 1.50 · @1.77
Draw13%fair 7.66 · @4.40
Jong AZ20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
2.63Expected goals
1.83De Graafschap xG
0.79Jong AZ xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: De Graafschap 1.8 – 0.8 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our pick is De Graafschap to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.77.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Jong AZ 20%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is De Graafschap 1–0 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Vijverberg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
