Value bet: Spartak Varna to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartak Varna to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.99
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Septemvri Sofia travel to Stadion Spartak in the First League on Monday 17 August (17:00 WAT) to face Spartak Varna. Spartak Varna are 7th with 16 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Septemvri Sofia sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Spartak Varna's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Botev Plovdiv 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to CSKA Sofia 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Spartak Varna arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 May 2026, finished Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Spartak Varna. Across their last 2 meetings Spartak Varna have won 0, Septemvri Sofia 1, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Spartak Varna and 1.0 for Septemvri Sofia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spartak Varna 56%, draw 20%, Septemvri Sofia 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Spartak Varna to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Spartak Varna 1–1 Septemvri Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Varna56%fair 1.79 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.25
Septemvri Sofia24%fair 4.22 · @3.65
2.74Expected goals
1.73Spartak Varna xG
1.01Septemvri Sofia xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–06%
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 1.7 – 1.0 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Septemvri Sofia 24%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 1–1 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
