Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets preview and prediction
The match
Ludogorets travel to Ticha Stadium in the First League on Sunday 9 August (17:00 WAT) to face Cherno More Varna. Cherno More Varna are 9th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Ludogorets sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cherno More Varna's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Botev Plovdiv 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Ludogorets's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Botev Vratsa 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ludogorets arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 April 2026, finished Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More Varna.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.7 for Cherno More Varna and 1.6 for Ludogorets. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cherno More Varna 17%, draw 22%, Ludogorets 62%.
Safer route: Ludogorets or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Cherno More Varna 0–1 Ludogorets. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cherno More Varna17%fair 5.94 · @4.60
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.55
Ludogorets62%fair 1.62 · @1.67
2.30Expected goals
0.68Cherno More Varna xG
1.62Ludogorets xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
0–37%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 0.7 – 1.6 Ludogorets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ludogorets 62%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 0–1 Ludogorets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets?
Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets (First League) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
