Value bet: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceLokomotiv Plovdiv or draw ✓89% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Septemvri Sofia in the First League on Sunday 26 July, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at Stadion Lokomotiv. Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th with 12 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Septemvri Sofia sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Ludogorets 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Arda Kardzhali 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 March 2026, finished Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.5 for Septemvri Sofia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 63%, draw 26%, Septemvri Sofia 11%.
Safer route: Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (89%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at 1.73 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.45
Septemvri Sofia11%fair 9.02 · @4.33
2.09Expected goals
1.58Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
0.51Septemvri Sofia xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.6 – 0.5 Septemvri Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Septemvri Sofia 11%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia (First League) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
