Value bet: Cherno More Varna to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✗64% · @1.70
Double chanceCherno More Varna or draw ✗86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.98
Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Cherno More Varna take on Spartak Varna on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Ticha Stadium. Cherno More Varna are 9th with 13 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Spartak Varna sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cherno More Varna's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Botev Vratsa 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Spartak Varna's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with CSKA 1948 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Cherno More Varna and 0.8 for Spartak Varna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Cherno More Varna to win at 1.70 – 64% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Cherno More Varna 2–0 Spartak Varna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cherno More Varna64%fair 1.55 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.40
Spartak Varna14%fair 6.98 · @4.60
2.74Expected goals
1.95Cherno More Varna xG
0.80Spartak Varna xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 1.9 – 0.8 Spartak Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✗
64%
1.55
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Cherno More Varna or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Half-time result
Cherno More Varna ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.98
–
Form
Cherno More Varna – last 6
DDDWWD
19 Jul
@ Botev Vratsa
1–1
D
11 Jul
vs Dunav Ruse
1–1
D
8 Jul
vs Dobrudzha
2–2
D
8 Jul
@ Farul Constanta
1–0
W
3 Jul
vs Spartak Pleven
1–0
W
1 Jul
vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Spartak Varna – last 6
DWDLDW
17 Jul
vs CSKA 1948
2–2
D
11 Jul
vs Dobrudzha
7–3
W
8 Jul
vs Nesebar
1–1
D
4 Jul
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Dunav Ruse
0–0
D
22 May
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Spartak Varna.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Spartak Varna 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 2–0 Spartak Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?
Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna (First League) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
