Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Monterrey to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonterrey to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceMonterrey or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Puebla vs Monterrey preview and prediction
The match
Puebla host Monterrey in the Liga MX on Thursday 22 October, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Puebla are 13th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Monterrey sit 10th on 21 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Puebla's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Club Tijuana 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Monterrey's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat CF Pachuca 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 April 2026, finished Monterrey 2–1 Puebla.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Puebla and 1.8 for Monterrey. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Puebla 16%, draw 22%, Monterrey 62%.
Safer route: Monterrey or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Monterrey to win at 1.75 – 62% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monterrey or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Puebla 0–1 Monterrey. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Puebla16%fair 6.10 · @3.75
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.40
Monterrey62%fair 1.61 · @1.75
2.61Expected goals
0.80Puebla xG
1.81Monterrey xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Puebla 0.8 – 1.8 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Monterrey or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Puebla vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Puebla have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterrey 62%.
How many goals will there be in Puebla vs Monterrey?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puebla vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Puebla 0–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Puebla vs Monterrey?
Puebla vs Monterrey (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
