Tigres UANL host Leon in the Liga MX on Wednesday 21 October, with kick-off at 04:00 (WAT) at Estadio Universitario.
Form guide
Tigres UANL's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Leon's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Club America 3–5 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Tigres UANL and 1.0 for Leon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tigres UANL 57%, draw 21%, Leon 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tigres UANL to win – a 57% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.76, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tigres UANL 1–0 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tigres UANL57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.10
Leon23%fair 4.44 · @3.30
2.71Expected goals
1.74Tigres UANL xG
0.97Leon xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Tigres UANL 1.7 – 1.0 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tigres UANL to win✗
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tigres UANL / FT Tigres UANL✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.65
–
Form
Tigres UANL – last 6
DWWLDD
18 Oct
@ Guadalajara Chivas
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs Toluca
3–2
W
27 Sep
vs Puebla
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ FC Juarez
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Monterrey
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Necaxa
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
LDWDWL
18 Oct
vs Club America
3–5
L
10 Oct
@ Puebla
1–1
D
28 Sep
vs FC Juarez
2–1
W
21 Sep
@ Club Queretaro
1–1
D
15 Sep
vs Atletico San Luis
2–0
W
11 Sep
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tigres UANL and Leon.
Our pick is Tigres UANL to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Leon?
On our numbers Tigres UANL have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leon 23%.
How many goals will there be in Tigres UANL vs Leon?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tigres UANL vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Tigres UANL 1–0 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tigres UANL vs Leon?
Tigres UANL vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Universitario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
