Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Guadalajara Chivas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗65% · @1.80
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.12
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL preview and prediction
The match
Guadalajara Chivas host Tigres UANL in the Liga MX on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 00:07 (WAT) at Estadio Akron. Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Atlas 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tigres UANL's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Toluca 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANL. Across their last 3 meetings Guadalajara Chivas have won 1, Tigres UANL 2, with 0 draws and 3.7 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.7 for Tigres UANL. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Safer route: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Guadalajara Chivas to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guadalajara Chivas or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Tigres UANL. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guadalajara Chivas65%fair 1.53 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.30
Tigres UANL14%fair 7.16 · @3.75
2.59Expected goals
1.87Guadalajara Chivas xG
0.72Tigres UANL xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.9 – 0.7 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our pick is Guadalajara Chivas or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tigres UANL 14%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 00:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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