Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗42% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Tigres UANL vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
Toluca travel to Estadio Universitario in the Liga MX on Saturday 10 October (04:00 WAT) to face Tigres UANL. Tigres UANL are 15th with 15 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tigres UANL's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Puebla 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Cruz Azul 3–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Tigres UANL and 1.5 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Tigres UANL 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tigres UANL34%fair 2.93 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Toluca42%fair 2.39 · @2.25
2.90Expected goals
1.36Tigres UANL xG
1.54Toluca xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Tigres UANL 1.4 – 1.5 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
42%
2.39
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.29
–
Form
Tigres UANL – last 6
WLDDDW
27 Sep
vs Puebla
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ FC Juarez
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Monterrey
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Necaxa
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Santos Laguna
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Atlante FC
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
DLWWWW
26 Sep
@ Cruz Azul
3–3
D
21 Sep
vs Santos Laguna
2–3
L
16 Sep
@ Puebla
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Atlas
5–2
W
7 Sep
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
3 Sep
vs Leon
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tigres UANL and Toluca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
On our numbers Tigres UANL have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toluca 42%.
How many goals will there be in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Tigres UANL 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Tigres UANL vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Universitario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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