Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗40% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Cruz Azul vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Cruz Azul take on Toluca on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 23:50 (WAT) at Estadio Banorte. Cruz Azul are 1st with 32 points from 16 games (top of the table), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Cruz Azul's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Monterrey 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Santos Laguna 2–3 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 July 2026, finished Toluca 1–3 Cruz Azul.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.5 for Cruz Azul and 1.6 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cruz Azul 37%, draw 23%, Toluca 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Cruz Azul 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruz Azul37%fair 2.70 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.60
Toluca40%fair 2.47 · @2.55
3.18Expected goals
1.55Cruz Azul xG
1.63Toluca xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Cruz Azul 1.5 – 1.6 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
On our numbers Cruz Azul have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toluca 40%.
How many goals will there be in Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Cruz Azul 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
Cruz Azul vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 23:50 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banorte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
