Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 3.35 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruz Azul to win ✓47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Necaxa take on Cruz Azul on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa are 17th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Cruz Azul sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Necaxa's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Cruz Azul's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Atlas 0–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 April 2026, finished Cruz Azul 4–1 Necaxa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.4 for Necaxa and 1.7 for Cruz Azul. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Necaxa 32%, draw 20%, Cruz Azul 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Necaxa to win at 3.35 – 32% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Necaxa 1–1 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Necaxa32%fair 3.10 · @3.35
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.65
Cruz Azul47%fair 2.11 · @2.00
3.10Expected goals
1.37Necaxa xG
1.72Cruz Azul xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Necaxa 1.4 – 1.7 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Cruz Azul 47%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?
Necaxa vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
