Value bet: Leon to win @ 2.64 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeon to win ✗40% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.02
Atlante FC vs Leon preview and prediction
The match
Leon travel to Estadio Banorte in the Liga MX on Saturday 29 August (02:00 WAT) to face Atlante FC. Atlante FC are 16th with 14 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Leon sit 7th on 23 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atlante FC's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Leon's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Real Salt Lake 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Atlante FC and 1.3 for Leon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlante FC 37%, draw 23%, Leon 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Leon to win at 2.64 – 40% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atlante FC 1–1 Leon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlante FC37%fair 2.70 · @2.46
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.50
Leon40%fair 2.48 · @2.64
2.59Expected goals
1.26Atlante FC xG
1.33Leon xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atlante FC 1.3 – 1.3 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✗
40%
2.48
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
Atlante FC – last 6
LDLLWW
22 Aug
@ Tigres UANL
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Toluca
0–0
D
12 Aug
@ Minnesota United FC
1–3
L
9 Aug
@ Real Salt Lake
0–4
L
5 Aug
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
1–0
W
2 Aug
@ Cruz Azul
3–2
W
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
WWWWWW
26 Aug
vs Real Salt Lake
3–0
W
22 Aug
vs Monterrey
2–0
W
18 Aug
@ Necaxa
2–1
W
13 Aug
@ Inter Miami
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Orlando City SC
2–1
W
6 Aug
@ Nashville SC
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlante FC and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atlante FC vs Leon?
On our numbers Atlante FC have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leon 40%.
How many goals will there be in Atlante FC vs Leon?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlante FC vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Atlante FC 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atlante FC vs Leon?
Atlante FC vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banorte.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
