Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
2
Value bet: Toluca to win @ 1.81 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓59% · @1.81
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.23
Club Queretaro vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Club Queretaro take on Toluca on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 04:10 (WAT) at Estadio La Corregidora. Club Queretaro are 12th with 20 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Club Queretaro's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Atlante FC 0–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Club Queretaro 1–0 Toluca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.9 for Club Queretaro and 1.8 for Toluca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Club Queretaro 21%, draw 20%, Toluca 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Toluca to win at 1.81 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Club Queretaro 0–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Club Queretaro21%fair 4.79 · @3.90
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.85
Toluca59%fair 1.69 · @1.81
2.68Expected goals
0.91Club Queretaro xG
1.77Toluca xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
0–36%
From our goals model: Club Queretaro 0.9 – 1.8 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
On our numbers Club Queretaro have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Toluca 59%.
How many goals will there be in Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Club Queretaro 0–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Club Queretaro vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Corregidora.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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