Value bet: CF Pachuca to win @ 2.30 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCF Pachuca to win ✗46% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.91
Leon vs CF Pachuca preview and prediction
The match
CF Pachuca travel to Estadio Leon in the Liga MX on Sunday 2 August (02:00 WAT) to face Leon. Leon are 7th with 23 points from 16 games (in the top half), while CF Pachuca sit 8th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leon's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Club Tijuana 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
CF Pachuca's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Club Queretaro 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CF Pachuca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for Leon and 1.6 for CF Pachuca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leon 33%, draw 21%, CF Pachuca 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Value angle: CF Pachuca to win at 2.30 – 46% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Leon 1–1 CF Pachuca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leon33%fair 3.05 · @2.88
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
CF Pachuca46%fair 2.15 · @2.30
2.89Expected goals
1.29Leon xG
1.60CF Pachuca xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–17%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Leon 1.3 – 1.6 CF Pachuca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CF Pachuca to win✗
46%
2.15
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CF Pachuca / FT CF Pachuca✗
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.91
–
Form
Leon – last 6
LLDWWL
25 Jul
@ Club Tijuana
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Atlas
2–3
L
11 Jul
vs Necaxa
0–0
D
3 Jul
vs Tapatío
4–2
W
27 Jun
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
7–4
W
26 Apr
@ Toluca
1–4
L
2.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
CF Pachuca – last 6
LWWLWW
27 Jul
vs Club Queretaro
1–2
L
19 Jul
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–0
W
4 Jul
vs Puebla
3–1
W
18 May
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
15 May
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1–0
W
11 May
vs Toluca
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leon and CF Pachuca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leon vs CF Pachuca?
On our numbers Leon have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and CF Pachuca 46%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs CF Pachuca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs CF Pachuca?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–1 CF Pachuca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Leon vs CF Pachuca?
Leon vs CF Pachuca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
