Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Toluca to win @ 2.90 – our chance 49% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +42%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓49% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
Guadalajara Chivas host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sunday 19 July, with kick-off at 02:07 (WAT) at Estadio Akron. Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Correcaminos Uat 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toluca's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Atlante FC 3–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Toluca 2–0 Guadalajara Chivas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.3 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.7 for Toluca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Value angle: Toluca to win at 2.90 – 49% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guadalajara Chivas31%fair 3.25 · @2.24
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
Toluca49%fair 2.05 · @2.90
2.98Expected goals
1.28Guadalajara Chivas xG
1.69Toluca xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.3 – 1.7 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Toluca 49%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 02:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
