Serie A · Italy · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
AC Milan
Genoa vs AC Milan prediction & analysis
AC Milan or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: AC Milan to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Genoa 0.8 – 1.9 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AC Milan travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 14% for Genoa.
Genoa have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. AC Milan have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.8 for Genoa, 1.9 for AC Milan). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Genoa have won 0, AC Milan have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is AC Milan or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, AC Milan to win at 1.95 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AC Milan to win ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | AC Milan or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | AC Milan ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan ✓ | 40% | 2.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.45 | – |
Form
Genoa – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Lecce | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Oct | vs Juventus | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Venezia | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Oct | @ Rapid | 0–2 | L |
AC Milan – last 6
| 5 Nov | vs Ferencvarosi TC | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Oct | vs Inter | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Oct | vs Bologna | 2–4 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Udinese | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | @ Bournemouth | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Atalanta | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
| 17 May 2026 | Genoa v AC Milan | 1–2 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie A predictions
League hub →Napoli1
Lazio1
GGBoth teams to score
65%@1.50
✓
FT
Monza0
Atalanta1
2Atalanta to win
64%@1.95
✓
FT
Inter2
Como0
GGBoth teams to score
65%@1.53
✗
FT
Fiorentina2
Juventus2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
77%@1.25
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our pick is AC Milan or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Genoa have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AC Milan 62%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs AC Milan?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa vs AC Milan (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.