Serie A · Italy · Stadio BrianteoMonza vs Napoli prediction & analysis
Napoli or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Napoli to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Monza 1.1 – 2.4 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Napoli travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 13% for Monza.
Monza have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.0 per game. Napoli have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (1.1 for Monza, 2.4 for Napoli). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Napoli or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Napoli to win at 1.75 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Napoli to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Napoli or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Napoli ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.03 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Napoli / FT Napoli ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.45 | – |
Form
Monza – last 6
| 23 Oct | @ Torino | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Cagliari | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Lazio | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Stade Brestois 29 | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Lecce | 2–3 | L |
Napoli – last 6
| 24 Oct | vs AS Roma | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs BodoGlimt | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Venezia | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | @ Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Frosinone | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monza and Napoli.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monza vs Napoli?
Our pick is Napoli or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
On our numbers Monza have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Napoli 63%.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Monza vs Napoli?
Monza vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Brianteo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.