Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Napoli to win @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNapoli to win ✗50% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Fiorentina vs Napoli preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Fiorentina take on Napoli on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 11:30 (WAT) at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Fiorentina are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Napoli sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Fiorentina's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Pisa 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Napoli's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Bologna 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.4 for Fiorentina and 2.0 for Napoli. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fiorentina 28%, draw 22%, Napoli 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Napoli to win at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentina28%fair 3.60 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.25
Napoli50%fair 1.99 · @2.25
3.38Expected goals
1.42Fiorentina xG
1.96Napoli xG
62%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
0–17%
2–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Fiorentina 1.4 – 2.0 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✗
50%
1.99
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Napoli ahead at half-time✓
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.76
–
Form
Fiorentina – last 6
WWLLLW
15 Sep
vs Pisa
3–0
W
11 Sep
@ Venezia
4–2
W
5 Sep
vs Torino
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Frosinone
0–3
L
24 Aug
@ AS Roma
0–4
L
14 Aug
vs Benevento
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
WLLLWW
13 Sep
vs Bologna
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Inter
2–3
L
30 Aug
vs Como
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Genoa
2–0
W
12 Aug
vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fiorentina and Napoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
On our numbers Fiorentina have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Napoli 50%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Fiorentina vs Napoli?
Fiorentina vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
