Value bet: Lecce to win @ 2.62 – our chance 43% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLecce to win ✓43% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.27
Lecce vs Monza preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Lecce take on Monza on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Via del Mare. Lecce are 14th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Monza sit 18th on 7 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lecce's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Cagliari 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Monza's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Parma 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.7 for Lecce and 1.5 for Monza. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lecce 43%, draw 24%, Monza 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Lecce to win at 2.62 – 43% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.82, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lecce 1–1 Monza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lecce43%fair 2.35 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @2.90
Monza34%fair 2.98 · @2.80
3.17Expected goals
1.69Lecce xG
1.48Monza xG
55%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lecce 1.7 – 1.5 Monza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lecce to win✓
43%
2.35
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lecce / FT Lecce✓
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.27
–
Form
Lecce – last 6
LLWLWD
7 Sep
@ Cagliari
0–1
L
31 Aug
vs AS Roma
0–4
L
23 Aug
@ Venezia
2–0
W
17 Aug
@ Palermo
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs SS Monopoli
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Istra 1961
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Monza – last 6
DWLLWD
6 Sep
@ Parma
1–1
D
1 Sep
@ Torino
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Udinese
2–3
L
22 Aug
@ Inter
1–4
L
14 Aug
vs Avellino
3–0
W
7 Aug
vs Padova
3–3
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lecce and Monza.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Lecce vs Monza?
On our numbers Lecce have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Monza 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Monza?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Monza?
Our predicted score is Lecce 1–1 Monza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce vs Monza (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Via del Mare.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
