Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
NG
Value bet: Not both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✗64% · @1.60
Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✗88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗25% · fair 4.02
Atalanta vs Cagliari preview and prediction
The match
Atalanta host Cagliari in the Serie A on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at New Balance Arena. Atalanta are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Cagliari sit 9th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atalanta's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to AS Roma 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cagliari's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Lecce 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 April 2026, finished Cagliari 3–2 Atalanta.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.3 for Atalanta and 0.3 for Cagliari. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Not both teams to score at 1.85 – 57% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atalanta to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atalanta 1–0 Cagliari. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atalanta64%fair 1.56 · @1.60
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.80
Cagliari12%fair 8.37 · @5.00
1.67Expected goals
1.32Atalanta xG
0.35Cagliari xG
43%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–025%
0–019%
2–016%
1–19%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atalanta 1.3 – 0.3 Cagliari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Atalanta to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cagliari 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–0 Cagliari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta vs Cagliari (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
