Serie A · Italy · Allianz StadiumJuventus vs Parma prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 55% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Juventus 1.6 – 0.4 Parma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Juventus are clear favourites at home with a 73% chance of winning, against 11% for Parma.
Juventus have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 per game. Parma have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Juventus come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.6 for Juventus, 0.4 for Parma). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 55% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (22%), 2–0 (18%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.45 is better than our fair price of 1.32, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Under 2.5 goals at 2.20 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Juventus to win ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| Double chance | Juventus or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.32 | 1.45 ▲ |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Juventus / FT Juventus ✗ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 22% | 4.48 | – |
Form
Juventus – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Aug | vs Palermo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Inter | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Aug | @ Chelsea | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | vs Nice | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Standard Liege | 1–0 | W |
Parma – last 6
| 22 Aug | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Catania | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Sampdoria | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Iraklis 1908 | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Jul | vs Arezzo | 1–1 | D |
| 24 May | vs Sassuolo | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Juventus and Parma.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |  Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |  Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Juventus vs Parma?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Juventus vs Parma?
On our numbers Juventus have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Parma 11%.
How many goals will there be in Juventus vs Parma?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
When is Juventus vs Parma?
Juventus vs Parma (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.