Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Atalanta to win @ 1.87 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✓60% · @1.87
Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.42
Atalanta vs Bologna preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Atalanta take on Bologna on Monday 31 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at New Balance Arena. Atalanta are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Bologna sit 8th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atalanta's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bologna's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Lazio 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Atalanta arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Atalanta 0–1 Bologna.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Atalanta and 0.7 for Bologna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atalanta 60%, draw 21%, Bologna 19%.
Safer route: Atalanta or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Atalanta to win at 1.87 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atalanta or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atalanta 1–0 Bologna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atalanta60%fair 1.67 · @1.87
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.55
Bologna19%fair 5.26 · @3.90
2.32Expected goals
1.59Atalanta xG
0.73Bologna xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atalanta 1.6 – 0.7 Bologna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Atalanta or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atalanta vs Bologna?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bologna 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–0 Bologna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta vs Bologna (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 31 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
