Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Deportes Tolima to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportes Tolima to win ✗66% · @1.36
Double chanceDeportes Tolima or draw ✗86% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.25
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima host Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A on Monday 26 October, with kick-off at 02:15 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Deportes Tolima are 9th with 26 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Pasto sit 18th on 15 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Deportes Tolima's last 5: LLDDD Most recently they lost to Águilas Doradas 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Deportivo Pasto's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Atletico Nacional 0–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Pasto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 May 2026, finished Deportivo Pasto 0–2 Deportes Tolima. Across their last 3 meetings Deportes Tolima have won 2, Deportivo Pasto 1, with 0 draws and 1.3 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Deportes Tolima and 0.6 for Deportivo Pasto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportes Tolima to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportes Tolima66%fair 1.51 · @1.36
Draw20%fair 5.00 · @4.20
Deportivo Pasto14%fair 7.34 · @8.00
2.41Expected goals
1.78Deportes Tolima xG
0.63Deportivo Pasto xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.8 – 0.6 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Deportes Tolima to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportivo Pasto 14%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
